UFC 94: Penn vs. St. Pierre Predictions

Welcome to our event picks for this weekend's UFC 94. The main event pits Lightweight champion BJ Penn against Welterweight champion George St. Pierre. So, without further ado, lets take a look at the UFC 94 fight card.

Main Card

Georges St. Pierre vs. B.J. Penn

Lyoto Machida vs. Thiago Silva

Karo Parisyan vs. Dong Hyun Kim

Nathan Diaz vs. Clay Guida

Stephan Bonnar vs. Jon Jones

Preliminary Card

Jon Fitch vs. Akihiro Gono

Jake O'Brien vs. Christian Wellisch

Chris Wilson vs. John Howard

Manny Gamburyan vs. Thiago Tavares

Matt Arroyo vs. Dan Cramer

Georges “Rush” St. Pierre (17-2)
vs.
BJ “The Prodigy” Penn (13-4-1)

Winfrey:
WOW! That is all I have to say. This has got fight of the year written all over it. There are a lot of keys to this fight so lets get started. BJ Penn has a distinct advantage in power in his striking, BJJ and chin. GSP has the advantage in wrestling, quickness of strikes, and athleticism. I think that it is very possible for Penn to win this fight. For him to do that, he HAS to come into this fight ready and willing to go five rounds. If he shows up in shape, I think he has a serious chance to win. For GSP, it’s simple. He needs to use his wrestling right away to make Penn work out of bad situations of the ground. He needs to frustrate Penn in any way he can, so Penn will get a little sloppy and use up that cardio. One key stat to look at in this fight is that 3 of Penn’s 4 losses have come outside of the LW division. St. Pierre will also hold a pretty significant size advantage in this fight. All in all, expect this one to be a great fight. It has had lots of hype, trash talk, and general excitement. This is one that could end in under a minute or be a 25 minute war.

Winner: Georges St. Pierre via TKO in Round 4

Stephens:

Gosh, I am so pumped for this fight! Great matchup for hardcore fans as well as a beautiful marketing ploy to casual fans with the two champions facing off. BJ is a little slower and tends to get overpowered easier at 170 and I think that's the determining factor in this fight. GSP is just too good of an overall MMA fighter to let his slip away.

Winner: Georges St. Pierre via TKO in Round 5

Phillip:

BJ Penn vs. GSP is the “Mega Fight” of 2009. It pits 2 fighters who are in their prime and both have a score to settle. Key for Penn is to rely on striking and his BJJ game and try not to burn out his gas tank in early rounds due to the adrenaline rush he’ll get trying to avenge his first lose to St. Pierre. GSP is the complete Mixed-Martial Artist who will need to use all of his weapons to fend off Penn and stay out of Penn’s pesky rubber guard. Should be “Fight of the Year” but we’ll see.

WINNER: B.J. Penn via Guillotine 4th Round.

Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida (13-0)
vs.
Thiago Silva (13-0)

Winfrey:
Nothing like a solid number one contender match. Both of these men are 13-0 and one them will be facing Rashad Evans for the title, when this fight is all over. For Silva to win, he needs to keep a fast, in your face pace against Machida. His best chance to win this fight is on the ground. If Silva lets Machida get comfortable and work his angles, then Silva will eat jabs and counters all night long. I have to give the nod here to Machida. I think he will fight a very smart, tactical fight and will finally earn his shot to become the LHW champion later in the year.

Winner: Lyoto Machida via Unanimous Decision

Stephens:

To be honest, I'm expecting a boring decision victory in this fight. Styles make great fights and to be honest Lyoto makes any fighter look boring. He's the epitome of an efficient fighter with no wasted movement or energy. Silva will likely try to fluster Machida early on but will not be able to find his groove due to Machida's backpeddling and counter striking skills. I could be wrong but I'm predicting a snore fest before the main event.

Winner: Lyoto Machida via Unanimous Decision

Phillip:

The Marathon Man Lyoto Machida facing the BEAST Thiago Silva is a LHW number 1 contender match up. Silva will look to cut off the cage and try to corner Machida then unload his heavy hands that pummeled our boy Houston Alexander. Machida will more than likely try to run around and win off counter-striking, but not this time, he is facing a man who will pursue and dish out the pain.

WINNER: Thiago Silva via TKO 2nd Round

Stephan “The American Psycho” Bonnar (11-4)
vs.
Jon “Bones” Jones (6-0)

Winfrey:
Fresh off a one year layoff, Bonner looks to get right back to his winning ways. Jones won his UFC debut in a decent effort. Jones has good, underrated wrestling with very athletic striking. Bonner has a very strong ground game and will probably look to get this fight there as soon as possible. If Bonner can shake the ring rust early, he should be able to win. If not, then Jones could continue his winning ways.

Winner: Stephan Bonner via Submission (Armbar) in Round 3

Stephens:

Stephan Bonner has had a tough go at it since losing twice to Forrest Griffin. I think his skills are vastly underrated and hopefully he proves it to us against an undefeated and heavy handed Jones. Jonse posses the skills to end this as quick as you can blink but I believe Bonner has learned his lesson about standing with strikers since the TUF Finale and is too smart to play "Bones" game.

Winner: Stephan Bonner via Submission (Triangle) in Round 2

Phillip:

Stephen Bonner is a good fighter but his year long layoff will do him in to the young up and coming Jon Jones. If the fight goes to the ground Bonner has a definite advantage with his skills as a BJJ artist. But if it stays standing I think Jones’s aggressiveness will tire out Bonner. This fight can go either way.

WINNER: Jon Jones with the UPSET by 3rd Round TKO.

Nate Diaz (10-2)
vs.
Clay “The Carpenter” Guida (24-9)

Winfrey:
Fight of the Night Potential? Definitely! I am personally stoked for this fight. Guida has been on a tear as of late, while Diaz is still unbeaten in his Octagon career. I really do not like Diaz, and personally I hope Guida pounds him. But, on to the analysis, Guida needs to stay in Diaz’s face and not let him use his length to out strike him. If Guida takes it to the ground, he will need to avoid Diaz’s vast submissions game. This one is tough to call, but I will take Guida.

Winner: Clay Guida via TKO in Round 2

Stephens:

Everyone's favorite lightweight will step into the octagon supercharged as usual against a "love him or hate him" personality in Nate Diaz. Diaz posses an abundance of skills where as Clay is still refining his to a well polished product. Guida can catapult himself into an elite fighter with a quality win where as Diaz would be able to be mentioned as a possible title challenger down the road. Both have a lot to win and lose in this fight which is when heart matters. Clay hasn't shown me anything but heart and desire where Diaz can sometimes be too concerned with outside the octagon issues.

Winner: "The Carpenter" via Unanimous Decision

Phillip:

Look For Nate Diaz to try to get Clay Guida in a triangle and give the middle finger to the crowd, cause that’s what he try’s to do every fight. But I think Guida’s insane aggressiveness will overwhelm that arrogant Diaz to the point he’s eating the UFC logo off Guida’s gloves.

WINNER: Clay Guida 1st Round KO.

Karo “The Heat” Parisyan (18-5)
vs.
Dong Hyun “Stun Gun” Kim (11-0-1)

Winfrey:
The first fight of the main card features the gatekeeper of welterweights, Karo Parisyan taking on Dong Hyun Kim. Both of these guys are Judo practitioners looking for a win. If Parisyan is healthy enough to be in the Octagon, then he should win this one, seeing as how he has fought a lot tougher opponents than Kim.

Winner: Karo Parisyan via Unanimous Decision

Stephens: Karo has always intrigued me as having more potential than he shows. "Stun Gun" has had two successful trips into the Octagon and will look to keep his streak going. Which I believe he will. Most people may see this as an upset but I don't think so. Kim is a better fighter with some quality fights ahead of him. He'll surprise people in this one and end it quicker than expected.

Winner: Dong Hyun Kim via TKO in Round 2

Phillip:

Which Karo Parisyan will we see??? The judo practitioner or the one that eats leather when getting the hell beat outta him? A fighter with so much potential who just doesn’t know how to grasp what he wants to accomplish. I’m taking Kim in this one. I don’t trust Karo.

WINNER: Dong Hyun Kim via TKO 1st Round.

Matt Arroyo
vs.
Dan Cramer

Winfrey:

This is an underwhelming match-up between two former TUF contestants. This is Cramer’s UFC debut and all I know about him is that he throws bombs. Arroyo is a polished submissions fighter, albeit with a 3-2 record. If Arroyo fights a smart fight, he should win. That is what I am banking on.

Winner: Matt Arroyo via Submission (Armbar) in Round 1

Stephens:

Arroyo has no reason to lose this fight. He is much better and will show it in this matchup. Pending Arroyo getting Coldcocker by Cramer, Matt wins easily.

Winner: Matt Arroyo via Submission (RNC) in Round 1

Phillip:

Arroyo hands down. Enough said.

WINNER: 1st Round Armbar.

Manny Gamburyan
vs.
Thiago Tavares

Winfrey:

This is a difficult bout for me to pick. Both fighters are coming off losses. One thing this fight won’t be is a standup battle. Neither of these two fighters has any striking ability, so look for this to be a ground fight. I think that Manny will maintain top position of Tavares for most of the fight, and might even score a submission. I wouldn’t bet on it.

Winner: Manny Gamburyan via Unanimous Decision

Stephens:

This is the inevitable grappling match. Both do happen to carry one TKO win on their records but both were early before the fight reached the ground. I'm thinking Tavares has the better overall MMA ground skills to pull off a submission.

Winner: Thiago Tavares via Submission (Kimura) in Round 2

Phillip:

Manny Gamburyan is coming off a brutal lose. I would like to pick him but his over-aggressiveness will do him in. I think Thiago Tavares has a better overall MMA game to get the victory.

WINNER: Thiago Tavares via RNC 1st Round

Chris Wilson
vs.
John Howard

Winfrey:

Welterweights clash in what could be the best fight, not on the main card. Howard is a newcomer who has held titles in various smaller MMA organizations. Wilson has 16 wins in his MMA career with most coming by TKO or submission, so he knows how to finish fights. I am going to say that Howard has a rude awakening, as Wilson will look to end this one early.

Winner: Chris Wilson via TKO in Round 2

Stephens:

Both fighters present well rounded abilities and can finish the fight from anywhere. Chris Wilson is probably the better fighter but Howard will be bigger and stronger and he has fought at 185 before. I'm going with my gut here.

Winner: John Howard via Split Decision

Phillip:

Chris Wilson has an odd way of striking and can handle his own on the ground so I’m gonna go with him jus because idk much about Jon Howard.

WINNER: Chris Wilson via 2nd TKO.

Jake O'Brien
vs.
Christian Wellisch

Winfrey:

When I look at this fight, I say to myself, “This is going to suck.” Basically, this is a loser goes home LHW bout. Neither fighter is impressive, which obviously doesn’t bode well in the ever deep talented LHW division. O’Brien should be able to use his wrestling to control Wellisch in what could be a very boring fight. If you’re attending the event in Las Vegas, I’d go get your refreshments during this one.

Winner: Jake O’Brien via Unanimous Decision

Stephens:

Just becuase of what Winfrey says about this fight I'm going opposite. Keep your seats during this one. Just trust me it'll be worth it...maybe.

Winner: Christian Wellisch via KO in Round 2

Phillip:

Wellisch has good power. Idk about O’Brien I think he’s kept around so guys can get easy wins. O’Brien can wrestle but that wont do much for him in this one.

WINNER: Wellisch via Unanimous Decision

Jon Fitch
vs.
Akihiro Gono

Winfrey:
Jon Fitch, fresh off his beating from GSP, returns to the Octagon to face Gono. Don’t know much about Gono other than that he has good submission skills and unorthodox striking. Fitch is looking to avenge his first UFC loss with a dominant victory. He should be able to accomplish this if he uses his wrestling and controls Gono on the ground. Fitch may not finish this fight, but Gono’s face will wish he had.

Winner: Jon Fitch via TKO in Round 3

Stephens:

Fitch is slightly being punished and slightly a product of unsaid rules of UFC events. Two lightweights usually open up so he can't fight there, Bonnar is trying to make a come back after being out for a year and the UFC wants his name to be in the news, and you can't put two 13-0 fighters battling for title contention on the undercard. So I believe Fitch is being penalized for the infamous one day firing; it's more of a refusal to break tradition for Fitch. With that being said, Fitch wins, no problem.

Winner: Jon Fitch via Unanimous Decision

Phillip:

This is the best fight not to be on the main card! What is Dana White thinking not putting Jon Fitch vs. Akihiro Gono on the main card. Besides GSP-Penn this should be the 2nd best welterweight fight of the night. Gono is a crafty veteran who knows the tricks of the trade. But from what Jon Fitch is saying he sounds like he is starting to become a dangerous fighter now, and is to much for Gono to handle.

WINNER: Jon Fitch via RNC 2nd Round.